journal 記録

In March 2026, Japan's Cabinet quietly approved a document that will reshape the country's housing landscape for the next 25 years. The revised "Basic Plan for Housing Life" (住生活基本計画) may sound bureaucratic, but its implications are anything but routine. This is the most fundamental shift in Japan's housing policy since the postwar era of mass construction.

From "Build More" to "Use What's There"

For decades, Japan's answer to housing demand was simple: build more. That approach delivered high-quality housing stock, but it also created a troubling legacy — approximately 9 million vacant homes (空き家), representing 13.8% of all residential properties, the highest rate ever recorded.

The new plan's central message is clear: building new homes is no longer the default answer.

The plan is organized around six key pillars:

① Revitalizing the Used Home Market
Tax deductions for used home purchases have been expanded — the loan ceiling for the mortgage deduction now rises to ¥35 million (¥45 million for households with children), with the deduction period extended to 13 years, matching new construction for the first time.

② Clearing Out Pre-1981 Seismic Standard Homes
The plan sets a timeline for retrofitting or removing homes built before Japan's 1981 earthquake resistance standard. This is the first time government policy has explicitly put an "exit timeline" on older housing stock.

③ Right-Sizing Living Spaces
The plan acknowledges the trend toward smaller homes — a family of three in 50㎡ — and shifts the policy framing from "bigger is better" to "well-designed is better."

④ Putting Empty Homes Back Into Circulation
With 3.85 million truly abandoned homes (the "other" category of vacant properties), the government is tightening enforcement of the new property registration requirement and strengthening the framework for forced demolition of dangerous structures.

⑤ Expanded Energy Efficiency Subsidies
Retrofit programs including "Window Renovation 2026" and "Hot Water Heater Efficiency 2026" continue, with subsidies of up to ¥1 million available.

⑥ Financial Infrastructure for Existing Homes
Loan screening for used homes and renovation projects is being made more flexible, creating a better financial ecosystem for the secondary housing market.

What This Means for Buyers

Four practical takeaways:

• Buying used is now backed by better policy — tax benefits, subsidies, and loan terms are converging
• New supply won't meaningfully increase — cost pressures and regulations limit new construction
• Older, pre-1981 homes carry growing risk — consider resale value and retrofit costs carefully
• Energy efficiency is the new benchmark for property value — non-compliant homes will face headwinds in financing and resale

Understanding where housing policy is heading is the first step toward making decisions you won't regret.

In April 2026, the average resale condominium price in central Tokyo's six premium wards reached ¥188.22 million (approx. USD 1.3 million), according to Tokyo Kantei. It's a number that stops most people cold. Yet the transactions keep happening. Who is buying, and what does the data actually tell us?

The Map Is Splitting

The headline number masks a more nuanced picture. While prices in the six central wards are still rising (+0.5%), that rate has slowed sharply. More interesting is what's happening at the edges:

Demand is spilling outward. Some ultra-premium central wards are actually declining, while middle-ring areas are accelerating. This is a classic sign of a market reaching its natural ceiling in the core and redistributing outward.

Three Buyer Profiles

High-income dual-income Japanese households
Japan's 2025 wage negotiations produced the largest pay increases in 30 years — an average of over 5%. Rising incomes, combined with inflation anxiety, are pushing more of Japan's middle-upper class toward tangible assets. Real estate is a primary beneficiary.

International investment capital
Despite the yen strengthening somewhat from its historic lows, Tokyo real estate remains relatively affordable compared to London, New York, Sydney, or Singapore. Capital from Hong Kong, Singapore, and mainland China continues to flow into high-end properties in Minato and Shibuya wards.

Inflation-hedging buyers
With savings rates negative in real terms, converting cash into property has become a logical defensive move for asset-holding individuals and families. This behavior has deep historical roots in Japan and has resurfaced with current inflation levels.

The Three Structural Forces

Supply constraint: New condo supply in the greater Tokyo area hit a historic low of 21,962 units in 2025 — down 35% from 2022. When new inventory shrinks, used inventory gets more pricing power.

Cost floor: Construction materials and labor costs remain elevated, meaning new builds are expensive to produce. If new condos are expensive, used condos look relatively reasonable by comparison.

Concentration of demand: Tokyo's share of Japan's high-income workforce continues to grow. The city is smaller in absolute population terms but denser in economic activity and purchasing power.

For Buyers Weighing Their Options

You don't need to chase the headline numbers. Consider:

• Middle-ring wards (Setagaya, Nerima, Edogawa) offer better value with good transit access
• Renovation-ready used condos remain a rational entry point in a high-priced market
• Rising mortgage rates (fixed-rate loans now above 3.21%) must be factored into affordability calculations

High prices reflect real structural pressures. The key question is always: does the price make sense for your purpose and timeline?

Two numbers tell the entire story of Tokyo's new condominium market in 2025:

21,962 — units supplied in the greater Tokyo area, the lowest on record, down from 33,636 just three years earlier.

¥91.82 million — the average transaction price, surpassing ¥90 million for the first time in history.

Supply collapses. Prices soar. It sounds like a paradox. It isn't.

Why Can't They Build More?

Land scarcity
Premium developable land in central Tokyo is essentially exhausted. What remains tends to be irregularly shaped, constrained by floor-area ratios, or complicated by road width regulations. Large developers have shifted focus to massive mixed-use redevelopment projects — but those take longer and cost more per unit.

Construction cost inflation
Core building materials — steel, concrete, timber — have increased over 30% since 2020. The combination of post-pandemic supply chain disruption, energy cost pass-through from the Ukraine conflict, and yen weakness on import costs has created a persistent floor on construction costs.

Labor shortages
Japan's construction workforce is shrinking. Skilled tradespeople now earn near white-collar wages, and young people are choosing other industries. Bureau of Labor statistics show that construction worker hourly wages have risen approximately 45% since 2015 — and the labor market remains tight.

Building code changes
The 2025 revision to Building Standards Law expanded the requirement for structural calculations to include smaller buildings previously exempt. This increases design cost, review time, and overall project lead time, particularly for small and mid-size developers.

Why Prices Keep Climbing

When supply contracts and demand doesn't collapse, prices move in one direction. But there's a more calculated dynamic at work.

Large developers have learned that maintaining high prices protects brand equity and future resale values. Selling fewer units at higher prices is more profitable — and less risky from a reputational standpoint — than flooding the market. Scarcity is, to some extent, managed.

The structural side effect: buyers who can't afford new construction are flowing into the used market, pushing those prices up too. The two markets are connected.

What Should Buyers Do?

The near-term outlook is clear: new supply won't bounce back quickly. Costs don't drop overnight. Good land doesn't appear by magic.

Practical implications:

• Used homes + renovation is no longer a fallback — it's a smart, often superior, strategy
• Suburban and semi-suburban markets still offer relative value before prices fully converge
• Waiting for new supply to return is a losing strategy — prices are more likely to rise than fall over a 3–5 year horizon

The "less, more expensive" era isn't a temporary blip. It's the new structural baseline of Japan's new housing market.

Japan's mortgage market has crossed a threshold that seemed impossible just a few years ago.

Flat 35 — Japan's signature government-backed fixed-rate mortgage — has exceeded 3.21% interest, the first time it has cleared the 3% mark since the product was introduced. Variable-rate loans remain far lower at 0.85%–1.40%, but the Bank of Japan's ongoing rate normalization means that gap will continue to narrow.

This creates the most consequential mortgage choice environment Japan has seen in a generation.

The Current Gap in Hard Numbers

For a ¥50 million loan over 35 years:

That's roughly ¥58,000 per month — or about ¥700,000 per year — in difference. Over 35 years, assuming rates stay the same, that's roughly ¥24.5 million. The "same rate forever" assumption, of course, is the critical variable.

The Hidden Risk in Variable Rates

The Bank of Japan has been steadily unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policy since 2024. Market expectations now include further increases to the short-term prime rate over the next two to three years.

If variable rates rise from 1.0% to 2.0% on the same ¥50 million loan, annual repayment increases by approximately ¥600,000. At 2.5%, the additional annual burden rises to roughly ¥1 million.

The "always choose variable, it's cheaper" wisdom of the zero-rate era no longer applies.

Three Scenarios, Three Answers

Scenario A: Long-term self-occupancy, stable income with limited upside
→ Flat 35 makes sense. Locking in certainty has real value when your income isn't expected to grow significantly. Peace of mind over 35 years is worth the premium.

Scenario B: Plan to sell or make substantial prepayments within 7 years
→ Variable rate is likely favorable. Rates are unlikely to spike dramatically in the short term, and you capture the low-rate advantage during your holding period.

Scenario C: Young household with growing income, dual incomes
→ Consider a fixed-variable hybrid loan (固変ミックス型). Available from major banks, this product splits the loan between fixed and variable portions, balancing cost and risk.

Don't Forget the Mortgage Tax Deduction

Higher rates are partially offset by the expanded mortgage tax deduction system, which in 2026 allows deductions on loan balances up to ¥35 million (¥45 million for households with children) over 13 years at 0.7% annually.

Factoring in the deduction effectively reduces your real borrowing cost — meaning the "3.21% vs. 1.0%" gap is narrower in practice than it appears on paper.

There's no universally correct answer. The right loan is the one that fits your financial structure, risk tolerance, and life plan — not the one with the lowest headline rate.

One of the most reliable, underutilized tools in Japanese home buying is the housing loan tax deduction (住宅ローン控除). In 2025, Japan's tax reform package expanded this system significantly — and in 2026, it's arguably the most favorable it has ever been for buyers of used homes.

The plain version: the government returns a portion of your home loan to you via your annual tax bill. Understanding how much, and for how long, should be part of every purchase calculation.

What Changed

① Higher loan ceilings for used homes

The deduction now applies to a larger portion of your loan balance. This narrows the policy gap between used and new construction — a deliberate signal that the government wants more people buying used.

② Deduction period extended to 13 years for used homes
Previously, used home buyers received only 10 years of deduction. Now it's been extended to 13 years, matching new construction. Those extra 3 years matter.

For a ¥35 million starting balance at 0.7% annual deduction rate: the additional 3-year benefit is approximately ¥600,000–¥800,000 (declining as the balance shrinks).

③ Program extended through 2030
Buyers planning a purchase within the next 2–3 years have ample time to take advantage of the current terms.

The Math for Child-Rearing Households

If you qualify as a child-rearing or young buyer household (under 40, or with dependent children), the numbers look like this:

Annual maximum deduction: ¥45 million × 0.7% = ¥315,000/year

Over 13 years, the cumulative tax benefit can reach ¥3.5–4 million+ (diminishing as the loan is repaid). That's equivalent to a meaningful portion of a down payment being returned through the tax system.

Key Eligibility Conditions

• Loan term must be 10 years or more
• Property must be your primary residence (not investment use)
• Property must meet certain energy efficiency standards (used homes require a seismic certificate or existing home warranty insurance)
• Household income must not exceed ¥20 million annually

How to Apply

For the first year: file a tax return (確定申告) the following spring with documentation including the property registration certificate, loan balance certificate, and seismic certificate. From year two onward, company employees can process it automatically through their year-end tax adjustment.

The mortgage tax deduction isn't a bonus — it's a systematic way the Japanese government subsidizes homeownership. Knowing your number before you sign is simply good financial hygiene.

Japan has approximately 9 million vacant homes (空き家), accounting for 13.8% of all residential properties — a record high, and nearly double the rate of 30 years ago (Statistics Bureau of Japan).

This is not an abstract national problem. It touches almost every Japanese family: the inherited family home in a provincial city, the rental property that hasn't found a tenant in years, the childhood house that nobody wants and nobody knows how to sell.

The Real Problem: 3.85 Million "Other" Vacant Homes

Not all vacant homes are equal. Homes that are listed for rent, listed for sale, or used as second residences are, in some sense, part of the functioning market.

The genuine crisis lies in the "other" category — homes that are neither for rent, nor for sale, nor seasonally used. Simply abandoned. There are approximately 3.85 million of these nationwide, concentrated in aging residential neighborhoods of provincial cities and towns.

Why Don't Owners Just Sell?

The answer reveals a perverse incentive built into Japan's tax code.

Fixed Asset Tax Reduction
Land with a residential building on it receives up to a 6-fold reduction in fixed asset tax compared to vacant land. The moment a building is demolished, the tax burden on that land jumps sharply. So even for a crumbling wreck, "leave it standing" is often the financially rational choice.

Demolition Costs
Removing a standard wooden house costs ¥1.5–3 million — not including debris disposal fees. For many inheritors who didn't expect the financial responsibility of a deteriorating property, this is simply beyond reach.

Inheritance Complexity
Many vacant homes are inherited by multiple heirs who can't reach agreement. Or the heirs are themselves elderly, live far away, and have no practical ability to manage the property. Inaction becomes the default.

Government Responses

Mandatory Property Registration (2024)
Inherited properties must now be registered within 3 years or face financial penalties. This addresses the "ownership limbo" problem that has allowed many vacant properties to sit in legal ambiguity.

Designated Dangerous Vacant Home System
Local governments can classify severely deteriorated homes as "designated vacant homes," removing their tax exemption and enabling forced demolition.

Akiya Banks
Regional governments maintain information databases matching vacant property owners with potential buyers or tenants. Results have been mixed, but some rural areas have seen meaningful transactions through these systems.

The Opportunity Angle

Every well-documented crisis contains overlooked opportunity. In this case:

Used homes — including fully traditional machiya townhouses and farmhouses — can be acquired in some areas for tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yen. Renovation, conversion to guesthouses, shared housing, or boutique accommodation has produced genuine success stories in places like Kanazawa, Matsumoto, and Kochi.

In Chiba Prefecture, the coastline areas of Katsuura and Kamogawa have seen a quiet but real movement of people converting old fishing village homes into short-term rentals and artist residences.

The vacant home problem is real. So is the opportunity embedded within it — for those willing to understand the rules and navigate the complexity.

Living in Chiba, you notice it before you look up the statistics. The new apartment buildings where there used to be parking lots. The coffee shops and craft beer bars in neighborhoods that didn't have them five years ago. The faces of young families with strollers who moved here from somewhere else.

The numbers confirm the intuition. According to the 2026 Land Price Announcement (地価公示), Chiba Prefecture's residential land prices have risen 130.4% cumulatively since 2016 — a figure that significantly outpaces the national average and many Tokyo wards.

Why Has Chiba Risen So Much?

① The Overflow from Tokyo
When central Tokyo prices push beyond what most buyers can comfortably afford, demand flows outward. Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba are the primary recipients. But Chiba holds a specific advantage: the Sobu and Keiyo lines connect Chiba's central areas to central Tokyo in 30–60 minutes, and unlike some suburban alternatives, you get meaningfully more space for your money.

For a young family choosing between a 60㎡ apartment in Suginami Ward and a 90㎡ house in Funabashi, the math often favors Chiba — especially once schools, parks, and community environments are factored in.

② Narita Airport Expansion
Construction of Narita International Airport's third runway — with associated logistics, commercial, and manufacturing development — has catalyzed land price appreciation around Inba and Narita City. Infrastructure investment has a well-documented multiplier effect on surrounding property values.

③ Targeted Urban Development
Chiba City's central ward redevelopment, Makuhari New Town's continued commercial and office growth, and Kashiwanoha Campus City's smart-city development have all contributed to area-wide land value increases extending well beyond their immediate footprints.

④ Post-Pandemic Lifestyle Shift
The normalization of remote and hybrid work has allowed many Tokyo workers to reconsider where they live. Chiba's natural assets — the Kujukuri coastline, Tokyo Bay waterfront, Kamogawa and Katsuura's rural landscapes — have made it a destination rather than a default for many relocating families and individuals seeking dual-residence (二拠点) arrangements.

Areas to Watch

Chiba as a Conscious Choice

Living in Chiba is no longer "settling." A growing cohort of people is choosing it deliberately — for the space, the nature, the community, and yes, the numbers.

At SKY Life, our roots here in Sakura City, Chiba are part of our identity. We operate our guesthouse not just as an accommodation business but as a reflection of what this place offers: accessible beauty, quiet authenticity, and a pace of life that the larger cities can no longer provide.

We believe Chiba's value — financial and otherwise — still has room to be recognized.

In 2025, Japan's Building Standards Law underwent its most significant revision in approximately 25 years. The last major overhaul was in 2000 — itself a response to lessons learned from the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake. This new revision is similarly ambitious in scope, touching everything from structural safety to energy performance.

If you're buying a new home, commissioning a custom build, or investing in renovation of existing buildings, this matters to you.

The Biggest Change: Section 4 Exemption (4号特例) Significantly Narrowed

Under the previous framework, small wooden structures of two stories or fewer could obtain building permits without submitting formal structural calculations — a designer's own judgment was deemed sufficient. This "Section 4 Exemption" dramatically simplified the approval process for the small homes that make up the vast majority of Japan's housing stock.

That exemption has been substantially narrowed. A much larger category of buildings — including many previously exempt wooden structures — now requires formal structural calculations and submission for review.

Practical consequences:

• Design and review timelines are longer
• Structural engineer involvement is now required for more projects
• Development costs increase, and those increases flow through to sale prices

Energy Performance Standards Now Mandatory

From April 2025, buildings that do not meet Japan's energy efficiency standards cannot receive a building permit — meaning they cannot be built.

Japan has historically treated energy efficiency as a target, not a requirement — one of the last developed nations to do so. This shift to mandatory compliance is a structural change with far-reaching implications.

The new standard affects:

• Insulation specifications
• Window and glazing performance
• Mechanical system efficiency ratings
• Documentation and review requirements

Impact on Buyers: Four Key Points

① New construction prices will rise further
Industry estimates suggest the combined effect of mandatory structural calculations and energy compliance review adds 3–8% to construction costs for mid-size residential buildings. That cost lands on the buyer.

② Older buildings require fresh evaluation
Homes built under the 4号特例 era — particularly pre-2000 stock — may never have had their structures formally verified. Before purchasing used property, commission an inspection (インスペクション) and seismic assessment. Don't skip this step.

③ Renovation investment requires pre-purchase legal due diligence
Large-scale renovations of existing non-conforming buildings now more frequently trigger the requirement for a new building permit. The "buy now, figure out the renovation later" approach carries real risk. Consult a licensed architect before committing to a purchase intended for major renovation.

④ Traditional wooden architecture faces an existential tension
The most contested aspect of this revision is the conflict between mandatory energy performance standards and Japan's tradition of earthen-wall, tile-roofed wooden architecture. Under the new standards, nearly all traditional kominka (古民家) fail energy compliance. How to preserve architectural and cultural heritage while achieving legitimate energy goals remains an unresolved policy challenge.

For Real Estate Investors: Practical Checklist

• Before purchasing old property for renovation investment, commission a licensed architect to assess post-renovation code compliance prospects
• Build compliance retrofit costs explicitly into your return calculations
• Seek out properties that have already completed seismic retrofitting and energy upgrades — their relative liquidity in the secondary market will improve as non-compliant stock faces increasing headwinds

The short-term disruption of this revision is real. The long-term direction is clear: Japan's housing stock is being systematically upgraded for safety and sustainability. Property that meets the new standards will be better positioned — financially and physically — for the decades ahead.